Bill Text - HB1817 (2018)

(Ninth New Title) establishing the position of state demographer and a commission on demographic trends; requiring state agencies to prepare 10-year current services cost projections; relative to the inclusion of a demographic analysis as part of the legislative fiscal note process; relative to salary increases for state employees and making appropriations therefor; making an appropriation for red list bridge projects; making an appropriation to the revenue stabilization account; making an appropriation for recovery friendly workplaces; relative to kindergarten funding; relative to transitional housing; relative to the state loan repayment program; relative to disproportionate share hospital payments and making an appropriation therefor; and relative to the uncompensated care and Medicaid fund.


Revision: April 9, 2018, 2:50 p.m.

HB 1817-FN - AS AMENDED BY THE HOUSE

 

8Feb2018... 0345h

21Mar2018... 1067h

2018 SESSION

18-2958

05/04

 

HOUSE BILL 1817-FN

 

AN ACT establishing the position of state demographer and a commission on demographic trends; requiring state agencies to prepare 10-year current services cost projections; and relative to the inclusion of a demographic analysis as part of the legislative fiscal note process.

 

SPONSORS: Rep. Hennessey, Graf. 1; Rep. Kurk, Hills. 2; Rep. F. McCarthy, Carr. 2; Rep. Walz, Merr. 23; Sen. Woodburn, Dist 1; Sen. Feltes, Dist 15; Sen. Innis, Dist 24

 

COMMITTEE: Executive Departments and Administration

 

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AMENDED ANALYSIS

 

This bill establishes the position of state demographer in the office of strategic initiatives; establishes a commission on demographic trends; requires certain state agencies to prepare 10-year current services cost projections for identified programs; and requires the legislative budget assistant to include a demographic analysis as part of the fiscal note for certain legislation.

 

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Explanation: Matter added to current law appears in bold italics.

Matter removed from current law appears [in brackets and struckthrough.]

Matter which is either (a) all new or (b) repealed and reenacted appears in regular type.

8Feb2018... 0345h

21Mar2018... 1067h 18-2958

05/04

 

STATE OF NEW HAMPSHIRE

 

In the Year of Our Lord Two Thousand Eighteen

 

AN ACT establishing the position of state demographer and a commission on demographic trends; requiring state agencies to prepare 10-year current services cost projections; and relative to the inclusion of a demographic analysis as part of the legislative fiscal note process.

 

Be it Enacted by the Senate and House of Representatives in General Court convened:

 

1  New Subdivision; Office of Strategic Initiatives; State Demographer; Commission on Demographic Trends.  Amend RSA 4-C by inserting after section 35 the following new subdivision:

State Demography

4-C:36  State Demographer; Position Established.

I.  There is established within the office of strategic initiatives, the position of state demographer.  

II.  The state demographer shall be professionally competent in demography and possess demonstrated ability based on past performance.  An appropriately qualified economist may hold the position.  

III.  The responsibilities of the demographer shall include, but not be limited to, developing demographic projections and working with the United States Census Bureau.  

IV.  The state demographer shall provide assistance and data to the legislative budget assistant in the preparation of demographic analyses requested pursuant to RSA 14:46, VII.

4-C:37  Commission on Demographic Trends.

I.  There is established a commission on demographic trends.  The commission shall work with the state demographer to develop long-term net migration goals, review and recommend programs and legislation designed to meet the net migration goals, and monitor the success of any such programs.

II.  The members of the commission shall be as follows:

(a)  Six New Hampshire citizens who have expertise to support the mission of the commission, appointed by and serving at the pleasure of the governor.

(b)  Four members of the house of representatives, appointed by the speaker of the house of representatives.

(c)  One member of the senate, appointed by the president of the senate.

(d)  The state demographer or designee of the director of the office of strategic initiatives.

III.  The commission shall elect a chairperson from its membership, and any other officers it deems necessary.  The terms of the elected members of the commission shall be coterminous with their terms in office; the terms of all other appointed members shall be 3 years.  In the event of a vacancy, a new member shall be appointed for the unexpired term in the same manner as the original appointment.  The first meeting of the commission shall be called by the first-named house member.  The first meeting of the commission shall be held within 45 days of the effective date of this section.  Seven members of the commission shall constitute a quorum.

IV.  The commission shall report at least annually to the governor, speaker of the house of representatives, president of the senate, clerk of the house of representatives, clerk of the senate, and the state library.  The annual report shall be posted on the general court website.  

V.  The commission shall create a biennial scorecard on New Hampshire’s demographic condition and trends, which shall be distributed to the governor, speaker of the house of representatives, president of the senate, clerk of the house of representatives, clerk of the senate, county commissioners, and the state library.  The scorecard also shall be posted on the general court website.

2  New Sections; Budget and Appropriations; Ten-Year Current Services Cost Projections; Legislative Reporting Requirement.  Amend RSA 9 by inserting after section 9:9-c the following new sections:

9:9-d  Ten-Year Current Services Cost Projections.  

I.  Each of the following state agencies shall provide 10-year cost projections for the identified service or program:  

(a)  The department of administrative services: state retiree health insurance, and in conjunction with the department of revenue administration, state revenues.

(b)  The state treasurer:  debt service.

(c)  The department of education: adequate education grants.

(d)  The New Hampshire retirement system: state employer retirement contributions.

II.  The cost projections shall be based on current policy, programs, and tax rates, and shall be adjusted only for demographically-induced changes in demand for public services and projected effects on state government revenues and expenditures.

9:9-e  Department of Health and Human Services; Ten-Year Current Services Cost

Projections.

I.  The department of health and human services shall provide 10-year cost projections for the identified service or program:

(a)  Uncompensated care.

(b)  Medicaid care management.

(c)  Medicaid-funded home and community based waiver services:  Choices for Independence, Developmental Services, Acquired Brain Disorder, and Children's In Home Services.

(d)  Nursing home services.

II.  The cost projections required in paragraph I for years one through 5 shall be based on the best available data and information available to the department to ensure accurate and reliable information is provided to the public and the general court.

III.  The cost projections required in paragraph I for years 6 through 10 shall be based on current policy, programs, and federal and state law, and shall assume economic and other external factors remain static.

IV.  The department shall issue the cost projections by September 30, 2019 and shall issue new projections every 2 years thereafter, or upon notice to the department by the state demographer of demographically-induced changes in demand for public services and projected effects on state government revenues.

9:9-f  Legislative Report of 10-Year Current Services Cost Projections.  On or before February 1 of each budget year, prior to the transmission of the budget to the legislature under RSA 9:2, the legislative budget assistant, in consultation with the state demographer, shall provide to the house and senate finance committees, a report with the 10-year current services cost projections described in RSA 9:9-d and RSA 9:9-e and any other relevant factors identified by the legislative budget assistant or state demographer.  The report also shall be posted on the general court website.

3  New Paragraph; Preparation of Fiscal Notes; Demographic Analysis.  Amend RSA 14:46 by inserting after paragraph VI the following new paragraph:

VII.(a)  The speaker of the house of representatives, the minority leader of the house of representatives, the president of the senate, or the minority leader of the senate may request the legislative budget assistant to prepare and include in the fiscal note a demographic analysis on bills and resolutions having an effect on the demographics of the state.  Each requestor shall be entitled to no more than 5 such requests during each annual legislative session.

(b)  When possible, the demographic analysis contained in a fiscal note pursuant to subparagraph (a) shall be prepared and incorporated prior to the introduction of the bill or resolution.  The demographic analysis shall accompany the bill throughout its course of passage through the general court and to the governor for action and shall be amended as necessary to correct errors or to agree with substantive amendments to the bill.

(c)  In preparation of demographic analyses required pursuant to subparagraph (a), the legislative budget assistant shall seek the assistance and data from the state demographer or may request assistance from any other source of data which is deemed reliable, including but not limited to private individuals, research and educational organizations, corporations, and associations located within or outside the state.

4  Phase-in, Funding for Position of State Demographer.  The position of state demographer shall be a part-time contract position in fiscal year 2019 and a full-time position beginning in fiscal year 2020.  For fiscal year 2019, appropriations to the office of strategic initiatives in 2017, 155 shall be used to fund the part-time position.

5  Effective Date.

I.  Section 3 of this act shall take effect July 1, 2019.

II.  The remainder of this act shall take effect July 1, 2018.

 

LBAO

18-2958

Amended 4/9/18

 

HB 1817-FN- FISCAL NOTE

AS AMENDED BY THE HOUSE (AMENDMENT #2018-1067h)

 

AN ACT establishing the position of state demographer and a commission on demographic trends; requiring state agencies to prepare 10-year current services cost projections; and relative to the inclusion of a demographic analysis as part of the legislative fiscal note process.

 

FISCAL IMPACT:      [ X ] State              [    ] County               [    ] Local              [    ] None

 

 

 

Estimated Increase / (Decrease)

STATE:

FY 2019

FY 2020

FY 2021

FY 2022

   Appropriation

$0

$0

$0

$0

   Revenue

$0

$0

$0

$0

   Expenditures

Indeterminable

Indeterminable

Indeterminable

Indeterminable

Funding Source:

  [ X ] General            [    ] Education            [    ] Highway           [    ] Other

 

 

 

 

 

METHODOLOGY:

The Office of Strategic Initiatives makes the following assumptions concerning the fiscal impact of this bill:

  • In FY 2019 the demography work would be completed by a contractor.  The Office lacks the information necessary to estimate contractor cost at this time.
  • The State of New Hampshire does not currently have a job classification for a demographer.  The Office researched salary ranges for full-time demographers in the United States and determined labor grade 27 (salary range: $53,898 to $72,911) would provide a comparable average salary.  Because the bill requires the demographer must be professionally competent in demography and possess demonstrated ability, the Office assumed salary step 8 ($72,911) best fits the higher range of US demographer salaries.
  • The Office states their office space is currently 100% occupied and additional space would be needed for the new position.  The Office would need to purchase office equipment including a desk, chair, file cabinet, and a personal computer with peripherals and specialized software.  Operating expenses would include supplies, postage, travel  and telephone.

 

Based on these assumptions, the Office provides the following cost estimates:

 

 

FY 2019

FY 2020

FY 2021

FY 2022

Salary

$0

$72,911

$72,911

$72,911

Benefits

$0

$33,906

$35,231

$36,573

Current Expense

$0

$300

$300

$300

Office Space

$0

$2,500

$2,600

$2,700

Equipment

$0

$5,000

$500

$500

Travel

$0

$500

$500

$500

Specialized Software

$0

$6,000

$0

$0

Consultant

Indeterminable

$0

$0

$0

Total:

$0

$121,117

$112,042

$113,484

 

The Department of Administrative Services determined this bill would have an indeterminable impact on State expenditures.  The bill would require four state agencies to prepare 10-year current services cost projections for certain programs adjusted only for demographically-induced changes in demand for public services and projected effects on state government revenues.  In addition, the bill requires the Department of Health and Human Services to provide cost projections for certain programs based on the best available data for years one through five; and provide cost projections for years six through ten based on current policy assuming economic and other external factors are static.  The Department assumes this requirement would be a component of, or a supplement to, the current requirements contained in RSA 9:4 for agencies to submit biennial budget requests.  The Department is unable to determine the fiscal impact without additional information on the expected format of the requests, the assumptions to be made, or the required changes and costs to update the State's budget system.  

 

The Department of Health and Human Services states the required cost projections for years one through five will be based on the best available data and the projections for years six through ten would be based on current policies, programs, and law assuming economic and other external factors remain static.  The Department would be required to issue the first projections by September 30, 2019 and every two years thereafter,  or upon notice of changes by the state demographer.  The Department assumes the requirements of this bill will be completed using existing resources.

 

The Treasury Department indicates, starting with the FY 2020-2021 biennial budget, the Treasury would be required to project the cost of debt services for ten years based on current policy, programs and tax rates and adjusted for demographically-induced changes in the demand for state services and the projected effect on state revenues.  The Department does not anticipate this bill will have a fiscal impact on its operations.  The Department currently prepares debt service projections for seven years as part of the annual Debt Affordability Study.

 

The Department of Education states the bill would require a 10-year budget projection for the cost of an adequate education.  The Department states it could provide the required 10-year projection with no additional resources.

 

The Office of Legislative Budget Assistant indicates the bill would require up to 20 fiscal notes to include demographic analysis.  In addition, the legislative budget assistant would be required to prepare a biennial report, in consultation with the state demographer, including the 10-year current services cost projections and any other relevant information identified by the legislative budget assistant or the state demographer.  To the extent possible, the additional duties will be handled with existing resources.

 

The New Hampshire Retirement System (NHRS) indicates employer contribution rates are actuarially determined and certified 9 to 10 months in advance of each two-year state budget cycle and may increase or decrease over time based on actuarial experience, legislative changes to plan provisions, and revisions to actuarial assumptions. It is not possible to estimate employer contributions beyond the current two-year rate period with any degree of accuracy given the number of unknown inputs that could drastically change the result.  NHRS states it would be contrary to the state constitution and the fiduciary duty of the Board of Trustees to expend trust fund assets for actuarial analysis not directly related to NHRS operations (RSA 100-A:15 and Article 36-a of the NH Constitution).  Therefore, NHRS would provide the 10-year required projections based on current state employer contribution rates and covered payroll data extrapolated forward using current actuarial assumptions. Any projections provided on this basis will be accompanied by appropriate disclaimers noting the qualifiers outlined above and that actual rates can only be determined for a fixed period based upon an actuarial valuation in accordance with RSA 100-A.  The NHRS assumes these cost projections would be prepared using existing resources.

 

AGENCIES CONTACTED:

Office of Strategic Initiatives, Office of Legislative Budget Assistant, Departments of Administrative Services, Treasury, Education, and Health and Human Services, and New Hampshire Retirement System